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Walkthroughs: (1) 2006 Rate of Decline | (2) 1999-2006 Rate of Growth | (3) Comparative analysis (1999 compared to 2006)

Walkthrough:
Confirm if the Florida Education Dashboard is real

How Florida reports school performance: Fast-rising school grades

Florida parents know their kids are in good schools. In 1999 Florida started increasing the number of A and B schools rapidly. There are now 4 times as many A and B schools as in 1999, and only one-fourth as many D and F schools.

In a recent press release Florida's Department of Education announced "Three of every four Florida schools were considered high performing in 2006."

Governor Jeb Bush added, "These results are further confirmation that reform, based on high standards and expectations, clear measurement and accountability and rewards and consequences for results, is working... Thanks to the leadership of dedicated education professionals, Florida's students are achieving significant progress."

Source data (this is the chart on second page of this file)

A short walkthrough of Florida's education data

Let's take a short and easy walkthrough of Florida's educational source data. In a few minutes you'll know how to confirm every number in the Florida Education Dashboard.

What does Florida's education data say about the schools when you look straight at the data, without either Florida or a Dashboard presenting it?

Step 1: Go to Florida's FCAT data download website: Click to go to the original Florida education data on the FCAT website: http://firn.edu/doe/sas/fcat/fcinfopg.htm	Click to go to Florida's FCAT data download website / Use Back button to return:
Part 1: See that the 2006 FCAT data shows the decline in reading between 3rd grade and 10th grade
Step 2: For State and District 2006 FCAT scores, download the 2006 Third Grade Reading scores (Excel file). (Note: Select the data files with "all curriculum groups" for both 2006 and 1999.)	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return:
Step 3: Use that Excel data file to confirm that in 2006, 75% of Florida 3rd graders read at grade level or above: Achievement Level 3 is "on grade level", so AL 3+ means 75% of third graders read on grade level or above.	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return: (Note: Yellow highlighting was added to simplify reading.)
Step 4: For State and District 2006 FCAT scores, download the 2006 Tenth Grade Reading scores (Excel file).	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return:
Step 5: Use that Excel data file to confirm that in 2006, 32% of Florida 10th graders read at grade level or above -- Achievement Level 3 is "on grade level", so AL 3+ means 32% of tenth graders read on grade level or above.	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return: (Note: Yellow highlighting was added to simplify reading.)
This confirms what the Florida Education Dashboard reports: In the Dashboard's left column click "Florida State" In the top half, in its right column: 75% of 3rd graders read on grade level 32% of 10th graders read on grade level There is an apparent decline: 43% of students fall below grade level in reading between 3rd grade and 10th grade Repeat this source data analysis for any school district in Florida. Use the 2006 3rd grade FCAT scores file you downloaded: Record a school district's 2006 percentage of students reading on grade level or above. Repeat with the 2006 10th grade FCAT scores file you downloaded: Record that same district's 2006 percentage of students reading on grade level or above. Determine the decline by subtracting the percent of 10th graders reading on grade level from the percent of 3rd graders reading on grade level. This is the key education performance decline reported in the Dashboard's top zone. Here's a list of all of Florida's school districts, with every district's decline as of 2006, from the FCAT test data you now have open on your PC. This table is easy to duplicate using these files and Excel. In summary, Florida's 2006 FCAT source data shows: Florida's best school district (Lafayette): 35% of its students fall below grade level in reading between 3rd grade and 10th grade. Florida's worst school district (Franklin): 63% of its students fall below grade level in reading between 3rd grade and 10th grade. Overall Florida state average: 43% of Florida's students fall below grade level in reading between 3rd grade and 10th grade.
Part 2: See that the 1999 and 2006 FCAT data show relatively little improvement at the middle school and high school levels
In the steps above you confirmed one data point for a comparison table such as: Total 7-year Growth (1999-2006) Florida State Students Reading on Grade Level or Above Grade 1999 2006 10th grade 32% 8th grade 4th grade
Step 6: Add the 2006 8th Grade Reading score by downloading that Excel file.	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return:
Step 7: Use that Excel data file to confirm that 46% of Florida eighth graders read at grade level or above -- Achievement Level 3 is "on grade level", so AL 3+ means 46% of 8th graders read on grade level or above. (Note: After downloading, the source file on Florida's FCAT website says "2005" in the header, but this file's data are different from the 2005 data, so this appears to be the 2006 data with an incorrect header.) Use the "Total 7-year Growth" table and add the 8th graders' 46% to the "2006" column (see table below, where this is added).	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return: (Note: Yellow highlighting was added to simplify reading.)
Step 7: Add the 2006 4th Grade Reading score by downloading that Excel file.	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return:
Step 7: Use that Excel data file to confirm that 66% of Florida 4th graders read at grade level or above -- Achievement Level 3 is "on grade level", so AL 3+ means 66% of 4th graders read on grade level or above. Use the "Total 7-year Growth" table and add the 4th graders' 66% to the "2006" column (see table below, where this is added). (Question: The above-confirmed 2006 FCAT data show that 75% of Florida's 3rd graders read on grade level. In 4th grade just 66% read on grade level. Has a decline already started?)	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return: (Note: Yellow highlighting was added to simplify reading.)
Step 8: Start determining a 1999 baseline to see the growth over the past 7 years: Scroll to the bottom of this same FCAT data page. In the section for 1999's data, download the first file "State and District Scores for All Curriculum Groups (MS Excel file) " (Notes: Select the data files with "all curriculum groups" for both 2006 and 1999. The 1999 file includes the data for all the grades tested in 1999. Use Excel's tabs on the bottom left to access the data for each grade.) In the 1999 Excel data file, select each grade using Excel's tabs at the bottom left:	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return:
Step 9: Click the "Grade 10" tab. Confirm that in 1999, 30% of Florida 10th graders read at grade level or above -- Achievement Level 3 is "on grade level", so AL 3+ means 30% of 10th graders read on grade level or above. (To determine this, add up the % of 10th grade students at AL 3, AL 4 and AL5 in 1999.) Use the "Total 7-year Growth" table and add the 10th graders' 30% to the "1999" column (see table below, where this is added).	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return: (Note: Yellow highlighting was added to simplify reading.)
Step 10: Click the "Grade 8" tab. Confirm that in 1999, 44% of Florida 8th graders read at grade level or above -- Achievement Level 3 is "on grade level", so AL 3+ means 44% of 8th graders read on grade level or above. (To determine this, add up the % of 8th grade students at AL 3, AL 4 and AL5 in 1999.) Use the "Total 7-year Growth" table and add the 8th graders' 44% to the "1999" column (see table below, where this is added).	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return: (Note: Yellow highlighting was added to simplify reading.)
Step 11: Click the "Grade 4" tab. Confirm that in 1999, 48% of Florida eighth graders read at grade level or above -- Achievement Level 3 is "on grade level", so AL 3+ means 48% of 4th graders read on grade level or above. (To determine this, add up the % of 4th grade students at AL 3, AL 4 and AL5 in 1999.) Use the "Total 7-year Growth" table and add the 4th graders' 48% to the "1999" column (see table below, where this is added).	Click to enlarge / Use Back button to return: (Note: Yellow highlighting was added to simplify reading.)
Enter the 1999 and 2006 data you confirmed into a comparison table such as: Total 7-year Growth (1999-2006) Florida State Students Reading on Grade Level or Above Grade 1999 2006 10th grade 30% 32% 8th grade 44% 46% 4th grade 48% 75%

Using Florida's original source data you have listed the key data that shows the total improvement between 1999 and 2006 (7 years):

• 10th grade: In the 7 years between 1999 and 2006 this increased from 30% to 32%.
  • In 7 years Florida's education system produced only a 2% growth in the percentage of 10th grade students who read on grade level or above.
  • For 10th graders, Florida's average annual Rate of Growth is 0.3% per year (based on 7 years of data).
    
    
• 8th grade: In the 7 years between 1999 and 2006 this increased from 44% to 46%.
  • In 7 years Florida's education system produced only a 2% growth in the percentage of 8th grade students who read on grade level or above.
  • For 8th graders, Florida's average annual Rate of Growth is 0.3% per year (based on 7 years of data).
    
    
• 4th grade: In the 7 years between 1999 and 2006 this increased from 48% to 66%.
  • In 7 years Florida's education system produced a total of 18% growth in the percentage of 4th grade students who read on grade level or above.
  • For 4th graders, Florida's average annual Rate of Growth is 2.6% per year (based on 7 years of data).

These data confirm the Dashboard:

• In the Dashboard's left column click "Florida State"
• In the bottom half:
  • This shows the table you just listed from Florida's original source data.
  • The Dashboard adds the average annual Rate of Growth for each grade.

What does this mean for Florida's children's future lives?

Consistent demographic patterns are among the most reliable types of predictions. Unless changed by direct action, they are likely to keep repeating.

With 7 years of data, unless there is a successful intervention to change the trends, we have a reasonably clear picture of how Florida's children's educations and future prosperity will turn out:

How long it will it take before Florida has 80% of its students reading at grade level or above:

• 10th graders:
  • It will take 154 years, in 2160, before 80% of Florida's 10th graders read at grade level or above.
  • This projection uses today's 2006 baseline of 32% of 10th graders who read on grade level or above, and the 10th grade growth rate of 0.3% per year (actual 10th performance for the last 7 years, 1999-2006).
    
    
• 8th graders:
  • It will take 81 years, in 2087, before 80% of Florida's 8th graders read at grade level or above.
  • This projection uses today's 2006 baseline of 46% of 8th graders who read on grade level or above, and the 8th grade growth rate of 0.3% per year (actual 8th grade performance for the last 7 years, 1999-2006).
    
    
• 4h graders:
  • It will take 4 years, in 2010, before 80% of Florida's 4th graders read at grade level or above.
  • This projection uses today's 2006 baseline of 66% of 8th graders who read on grade level or above, and the 4th grade growth rate of 2.6% per year (actual 4th grade performance for the last 7 years, 1999-2006).

It appears that Florida's elementary schools deserve both praise and attention:

• Praise: The 4th grade growth rate is strong and appears to deliver steady year-after-year improvements.
• Attention: The 2006 FCAT shows that 75% of 3rd graders read on grade level or above, while only 66% of 4th graders read on grade level or above. Florida's decline in the percentage of students who read on grade level or above may be starting in elementary school. If true, attention is needed.

It appears that Florida's middle schools and high schools need serious attention:

• Florida's legislators and parents might consider asking whether Florida's public education system knows how to improve student performance at middle school and high school levels.
• The Florida Education Dashboard's "Top 3 Recommendations" are here.

Consider tweaking Florida's school grading system so students and parents receive clear information

• Differing with the Florida Department of Education press release, walking through the data makes it hard to agree that "Three of every four Florida schools were considered high performing in 2006."
  
  
• The Sarasota school district is an example:
  • In 2006, 90% of Sarasota district schools were awarded A or B grades. But consider this district's actual performance from the Florida Education Dashboard.
  • 8th graders reading on grade level or above:
    • In 1999 59% of students read on grade level or above.
    • In 2006 53% of students read on grade level or above.
    • This is a decline of 6% over the past 7 years -- fewer 8th graders read on grade level than 7 years ago.
  • 10th graders reading on grade level or above:
    • In 1999 41% of students read on grade level or above.
    • In 2006 38% of students read on grade level or above.
    • This is a decline of 3% over the past 7 years -- fewer 10th graders read on grade level than 7 years ago.
  • Projection: With negative growth, Sarasota will NEVER reach 80% of its students reading on grade level or above.
    
    
  • Question: When schools are declining, how can 90% of Sarasota's schools be given A and B grades, and be considered "high performing"?
    
    
• For Florida's school grading system, see the Florida Education Dashboard's "Top 3 Recommendations".

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